OPEC global crude output share could fall from 35 % to 31 % without UAE : EIA

The UAE's exit from OPEC has reduced the organization's global crude production share from 35 percent to 31 percent. This move arrives as regional conflicts and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to disrupt over 11 million barrels of daily oil supply across the Middle East.

Recent figures from the U.S.

Energy Information Administration indicate that the departure of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC has notably reduced the bloc's influence on the global stage.

If the UAE had remained, the organization would handle roughly 35 percent of 2025's global crude output.

Without the Gulf nation, that share drops to 31 percent.

Similarly, the broader OPEC+ alliance sees its market portion decline from 46 percent to 42 percent due to the exit.

Before leaving, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer, trailing only Saudi Arabia and Iraq with a daily capacity of 4.2 million barrels.

The transition comes amid intense regional instability, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

This blockade is expected to cause massive supply disruptions, potentially reaching 11.25 million barrels per day by May 2026.

While several nations face significant production shut-ins, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess the infrastructure necessary to divert exports around the obstructed waterway.

Source: GDELT — Gulf & Levant