OPEC global crude output share could fall from 35 % to 31 % without UAE : EIA

The UAE's exit from OPEC has cut the organization's global production share from 35 percent to 31 percent. This move significantly impacts the bloc's capacity as regional conflicts and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt oil exports across the Middle East.

The United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC has notably reduced the organization's influence over the international petroleum market, according to the U.S.

Energy Information Administration.

Before its exit, the UAE contributed significantly to the group's output, helping it maintain a 35 percent share of global crude production.

Without the UAE, that figure drops to 31 percent.

A similar decline is seen in the expanded OPEC+ coalition, where the group's total share falls from 46 percent to 42 percent.

As the third-largest producer in the bloc prior to its withdrawal, the UAE averaged 3.4 million barrels per day in 2025.

This structural shift occurs alongside massive regional disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional conflicts have locked in millions of barrels, with Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia facing severe export constraints.

Only the UAE and Saudi Arabia currently possess the infrastructure necessary to bypass the strait and reach global markets through alternative routes.

Source: GDELT — Gulf & Levant